Friday, July 20, 2007

Graphing Fun

Here are a couple of visuals from the project I'm working on. This is from a $5 SNG that I won a while back (the same one that I posted about with the roller coaster of heads-up hands). The first graph is my chipsEV (calculated using ICM formulas) tracked from start to finish in that one game. It's tracking the deltas, so even though I started with $5 in equity and ended with $22.50, it shows up on the graph as starting with $0 and ending with $17.50.



The second graph takes advantage of the filters, which are really the most useful part of this tool. I filtered out only the hands from the game that ended in an all-in showdown with cards to come. The red line shows how my equity would have progressed on average based upon the odds. The blue line shows the actual result. When the blue line is below the red, you're "running bad". When it's above the red, you're "running good". The last 9 of those hands were after the bubble burst, including the 8 hands that I originally posted about.



So you can see from the second graph that I was running bad pretty much all the way until the money, and then my luck turned around. This is exactly what I said in my original post about that game, but now I have statistical proof to back it up.

EDIT: Beat: I just noticed that the images get cut off. Not cool. Check the image URL to see the entire thing.

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